On May 12th, according to foreign news, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has once again lowered the country’s estimated cotton production for the year 2022/23 to 29.835 million bales (170 kg/bag). Last month, CAI had to face criticism from industry organizations questioning the reduction in production. CAI stated that the new estimate was based on recommendations given to 25 members of the Crop Committee who received data from 11 state associations.
After adjusting the cotton production estimate, CAI predicts that the export price of cotton will rise to 75000 rupees per 356 kilograms. But downstream industries expect that cotton prices will not rise significantly, especially the two largest buyers of clothing and other textiles – the United States and Europe.
CAI President Atul Ganatra stated in a press release that the organization has reduced its production estimate for 2022/23 by 465000 packages to 29.835 million packages. Maharashtra and Trengana may further reduce production by 200000 packages, Tamil Nadu may reduce production by 50000 packages, and Orissa may decrease production by 15000 packages. CAI did not correct the production estimates for other major production areas.
CAI stated that committee members will closely monitor the cotton processing quantity and arrival situation in the coming months, and if there is a need to increase or reduce production estimates, it will be reflected in the following report.
In this March’s report, CAI estimated cotton production to be 31.3 million bales. The estimates made in the February and January reports are 32.1 million and 33 million packages, respectively. After multiple revisions last year, the final estimated cotton production in India was 30.7 million bales.
CAI stated that during the period from October 2022 to April 2023, the cotton supply is expected to be 26.306 million bales, including 22.417 million arrived bales, 700000 imported bales, and 3.189 million initial inventory bales. The estimated consumption is 17.9 million packages, and the estimated export shipment as of April 30th is 1.2 million packages. As of the end of April, cotton inventory is expected to be 7.206 million bales, with textile mills holding 5.206 million bales. CCI, the Maharashtra Federation, and other companies (multinational corporations, traders, and cotton ginners) hold the remaining 2 million bales.
It is expected that by the end of the current year 2022/23 (October 2022 September 2023), the total cotton supply will reach 34.524 million bales. This includes 31.89 million initial inventory packages, 2.9835 million production packages, and 1.5 million imported packages.
The current annual domestic consumption is expected to be 31.1 million packages, which is unchanged from previous estimates. The export is expected to be 2 million packages, a decrease of 500000 packages compared to the previous estimate. Last year, India’s cotton exports were expected to be 4.3 million bales. The current estimated inventory carried forward is 1.424 million packages.
Post time: May-16-2023