As of November 29, 2022, the long rate of ICE cotton futures fund has dropped to 6.92%, 1.34 percentage points lower than that of November 22; As of November 25, there were 61354 ON-CAll contracts for ICE futures in 2022/23, 3193 fewer than that on November 18, with a decrease of 4.95% in a week, indicating that the buyer’s price point, the seller’s repurchase or the two parties’ negotiation to postpone the price point were relatively active.
In late November, the main contract of ICE broke 80 cents/pound again. Instead of entering the market in a large scale, funds and bulls kept closing positions and fleeing. A large cotton trader judged that the main short-term ICE futures contracts might continue to consolidate in the 80-90 cents/pound range, still in the “top, bottom” state, and the volatility was significantly weaker than that in September/October. Institutions and speculators were mainly engaged in “selling high while attracting low” operations. However, due to the great uncertainty in the global cotton fundamentals, policies and peripheral markets, and the countdown to the Federal Reserve’s December interest meeting, Therefore, there is little opportunity for cotton processing enterprises and cotton traders to enter the market, and the atmosphere of watching and waiting is strong.
According to the statistics of USDA, as of December 1, 1955900 tons of American cotton had been inspected in 2022/23 (the weekly inspection amount last week reached 270100 tons); As of November 27, the cotton harvest progress in the United States was 84%, of which the harvest progress in Texas, the major cotton producing region, also reached 80%, indicating that although most of the major cotton producing regions in the United States have experienced cooling and rainfall since November, and the harvest in the southeast cotton region has stagnated, the overall harvest and processing progress is still relatively fast and ideal. Some American cotton exporters and international cotton traders expect that the shipment and delivery of American cotton in the year 2022/23, the shipping date of December/December, will be basically normal, No delay.
However, since the end of October, Chinese buyers have not only started to significantly reduce and suspend the signing of 2022/23 American cotton, but also cancelled the 24800 ton contract in the week of November 11-17, raising the concern of international cotton traders and traders, because Southeast Asia, South Asia and other countries can not replace and make up for China’s reduced signing. A foreign businessman said that although the recent policy of epidemic prevention and control in many parts of China has been loosened again, the economic recovery expectation has continued to rise, and all parties have strong expectations for the rebound of China’s cotton consumption demand in 2022/23, considering the greater risk of global economic recession, the wide fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, the still prominent upside down of domestic and foreign cotton prices, the Xinjiang cotton export ban “blocking”, inflation and other factors The rebound height of Zheng Mian and others should not be too high.
Post time: Dec-05-2022