The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.1% month on month in November; The core CPI increased by 4.0% year-on-year and 0.3% month on month. Fitch Ratings expects the US CPI to fall back to 3.3% by the end of this year and further to 2.6% by the end of 2024. The Federal Reserve believes that the current growth rate of economic activity in the United States has slowed down compared to the third quarter, and has suspended interest rate hikes for three consecutive times since September.
According to data from the US Department of Commerce, due to the impact of November Thanksgiving and Black Friday shopping festival, the growth rate of US retail in November changed from negative to positive, with a month on month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, mainly driven by online retail, leisure, and catering. This once again indicates that although there are signs of economic cooling, US consumer demand remains resilient.
Clothing and apparel stores: Retail sales in November reached 26.12 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.6% month on month and 1.3% compared to the same period last year.
Furniture and Home Furnishings Store: The retail sales in November were 10.74 billion US dollars, a month on month increase of 0.9%, a decrease of 7.3% compared to the same period last year, and a decrease of 4.5 percentage points compared to the previous month.
Comprehensive stores (including supermarkets and department stores): The retail sales in November were $72.91 billion, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous month and an increase of 1.1% from the same period last year. Among them, the retail sales of department stores were 10.53 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.5% month on month and 5.2% year-on-year.
Non physical retailers: The retail sales in November were 118.55 billion US dollars, an increase of 1% month on month and 10.6% compared to the same period last year, with an expanded growth rate.
02 Inventory sales ratio tends to stabilize
In October, the inventory/sales ratio of clothing and apparel stores in the United States was 2.39, unchanged from the previous month; The inventory/sales ratio of furniture, home furnishings, and electronics stores was 1.56, unchanged from the previous month.
03 import decline narrowed, China’s share stopped falling
Textile and Clothing: From January to October, the United States imported textile and clothing worth $104.21 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 23%, slightly narrowing the decline by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous September.
Imports from China amounted to 26.85 billion US dollars, a decrease of 27.6%; The proportion is 25.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6 percentage points, and a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous September.
Imports from Vietnam amounted to 13.8 billion US dollars, a decrease of 24.9%; The proportion is 13.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points.
Imports from India amounted to 8.7 billion US dollars, a decrease of 20.8%; The proportion is 8.1%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points.
Textiles: From January to October, the United States imported textiles worth 29.14 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 20.6%, narrowing the decline by 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous September.
Imports from China amounted to 10.87 billion US dollars, a decrease of 26.5%; The proportion is 37.3%, a decrease of 3 percentage points year-on-year.
Imports from India amounted to 4.61 billion US dollars, a decrease of 20.9%; The proportion is 15.8%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points.
Importing 2.2 billion US dollars from Mexico, an increase of 2.4%; The proportion is 7.6%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points.
Clothing: From January to October, the US imported clothing worth $77.22 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8%, narrowing the decline by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous September.
Imports from China amounted to 17.72 billion US dollars, a decrease of 27.6%; The proportion is 22.9%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year.
Imports from Vietnam amounted to 12.99 billion US dollars, a decrease of 24.7%; The proportion is 16.8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points.
Imports from Bangladesh amounted to 6.7 billion US dollars, a decrease of 25.4%; The proportion is 8.7%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points.
04 Retail Business Performance
American Eagle Outfitters
In the three months ending October 28th, American Eagle Outfitters revenue increased by 5% year-on-year to $1.3 billion. The gross profit margin increased to 41.8%, physical store revenue increased by 3%, and digital business increased by 10%. During the period, the group’s underwear business Aerie saw a 12% increase in revenue to $393 million, while American Eagle saw a 2% increase in revenue to $857 million. For the entire year of this year, the group expects to record a median single digit increase in sales.
G-III
In the third quarter ending October 31, DKNY’s parent company G-III saw a 1% decrease in sales from $1.08 billion in the same period last year to $1.07 billion, while net profit nearly doubled from $61.1 million to $127 million. For the fiscal year 2024, G-III is expected to record revenue of $3.15 billion, lower than the same period last year’s $3.23 billion.
PVH
PVH Group’s revenue in the third quarter increased by 4% year-on-year to $2.363 billion, with Tommy Hilfiger increasing by 4%, Calvin Klein increasing by 6%, gross profit margin of 56.7%, pre tax profit halving to $230 million year-on-year, and inventory decreasing by 19% compared to the same period last year. However, due to the sluggish overall environment, the group expects a 3% to 4% decline in revenue in the fourth quarter of the 2023 fiscal year.
Urban Outfitters
In the three months ending October 31, sales of Urban Outfitters, a US clothing retailer, increased by 9% year-on-year to $1.28 billion, and net profit surged by 120% to $83 million, both reaching historic highs, mainly due to strong growth in digital channels. During the period, the group’s retail business grew by 7.3%, with Free People and Anthropologie achieving growth of 22.5% and 13.2% respectively, while the eponymous brand experienced a significant decline of 14.2%.
Vince
Vince, a high-end clothing group in the United States, saw a year-on-year decline of 14.7% in sales in the third quarter to $84.1 million, with a net profit of $1 million, turning losses into profits from the same period last year. By channel, wholesale business decreased by 9.4% year-on-year to $49.8 million, while direct retail sales decreased by 1.2% to $34.2 million.
Post time: Dec-27-2023