The latest report from the US Agricultural Counselor states that India’s cotton production in 2023/24 was 25.5 million bales, slightly higher than this year, with a slightly lower planting area (shifting towards alternative crops) but higher yield per unit area. Higher yields are based on “expectations for normal monsoon seasons,” rather than a regression to recent averages.
According to the forecast of the Indian Meteorological Agency, the monsoon rainfall in India this year is 96% (+/-5%) of the long-term average, fully in line with the definition of normal levels. The rainfall in Gujarat and Maharashtra is below normal levels (although some key cotton areas in Maharashtra show normal rainfall).
The Indian Meteorological Agency will closely monitor the shift in climate from neutral to El Ni ñ o and the Indian Ocean dipole, both of which often have an impact on the monsoon. The El Ni ñ o phenomenon may disrupt the monsoon, while the Indian Ocean dipole may shift from negative to positive, which may support rainfall in India. The next year’s cotton cultivation in India will start from now on in the north at any time, and extend to Gujarat and Marastra in mid June.
Post time: May-09-2023